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SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman is back with another betting system, this time for Week 18. Betting on Week 18 games can be tricky considering some teams are resting starters ahead of the postseason while others are just trying to get across the finish line, but Hochman has identified an intriguing system targeting underdogs eliminated from playoff contention against playoff-hopeful squads. 

The "Spoiler" System (Eliminated vs. Playoff Hopefuls)

  • Win Rate: 108-69-4 ATS (61%)
  • Sample Size: Since 2009
  • Criteria: Any eliminated underdog playing against a team fighting for seed or berth
  • Edge: Spreads of +7 or higher

Why does this work?

The public overwhelmingly bets on teams that "need" the win to make the playoffs, assuming they will play harder. In reality, the pressure often causes these teams to play tight, while the eliminated team plays loose, aggressive and "spoiler-minded" football. Oddsmakers inflate the line for the "motivated" team because they know the public will pay a "motivation tax." This creates value on the underdog.

Week 18 qualifiers

Tennessee Titans +12.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars | Confidence: 5 out of 5  

Can the Titans, standing at 3-13, cash as a double-digit underdog for the fifth time this season? They have nothing to lose. The Jaguars feel all the pressure as they chase the No. 1 seed, even if their chances are slim. If you've watched these end-of-season divisional games before, you know they're always unpredictable, much like the chaos that defines Week 1. More often than not, double-digit underdogs seem to cover because the favorites just want to get the win and move on -- they're not out to run up the score. If Jacksonville builds a lead, they might bench their starters or shift into cruise control. That could open the door for the Titans to slip in a late cover.

Jacksonville comes in hot at 12-4, riding a seven-game winning streak both outright and against the spread. The Jags have already punched their ticket to the postseason and are mostly just wrapping up the division, as there's not much at stake since Houston is behind in the tiebreaker and Jacksonville is almost certainly landing the No. 3 seed. When you look at the playoff picture, the Jaguars have just a 3% shot at the top seed, a 26% chance at the No. 2 seed and are most likely to end up as the No. 3 seed at nearly 60%. In other words, Jacksonville is probably more focused on getting through this game healthy than chasing the slimmest of playoff advantages.

Jacksonville's seven-game winning streak has a lot to do with its defense stepping up in a big way. Over the past five weeks, the Jaguars have held opponents to just 15.8 points per game and have forced at least two turnovers in every contest, piling up 19 takeaways in seven contests. Still, relying on turnovers every week isn't a sustainable strategy in the NFL.

On the flip side, the Titans are 3-13 and totally out of the playoff picture. You might think they'd have checked out by now, but that's not the case -- they've actually looked much better lately. Over their last four games, they've split 2-2 both straight up and against the spread, and those losses were by just one score. They've covered the spread in five of their last eight games. While the season's been rough, the team is still showing plenty of fight under interim head coach Mike McCoy.

The Titans have quietly gone 5-1 against the spread in their last six games after a straight-up loss, including last week's close one against the Saints. They're also looking to get even after dropping the Week 13 matchup as 6-point home underdogs. This line looks pretty high to me -- my numbers make the home team only a 10.5-point favorite. I'm factoring in recent performance, motivation, injuries, and strength of schedule -- data points the market might see differently. Since everyone seems to be on the Jaguars, I'll take the other side with the sportsbooks and root for the underdog to come through.